Isaac Baley
  • Home
  • Research
  • Teaching
  • Events
  • Personal
  • Contact

Research

Macro Fluctuations and Micro Frictions
Google Scholar Profile
​


Publications

(5)  Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht)    
Journal of Political Economy (Forthcoming)

Paper      Online Appendix
During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching.

(4) Bayesian Learning (w/ Laura Velkamp) 
Handbook of Economic Expectations (Forthcoming) 
Paper  

Learning is the process by which agents form beliefs. We survey the literature on Bayesian learning and consider the  types of consequences these beliefs have on economic outcomes. 

(3) Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Econometrica (Vol. 89, No. 3, May 2021) 
Paper       Appendix        Online Appendix   
When agents make lumpy choices (investment, price-setting…), we show that two steady-state statistics, easily computed with microdata, predict how the economy responds to macro shocks and inform the size of adjustment frictions. 

(2) Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? (w/ Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh)
Journal of International Economics (Vol. 126, Sep 2020)
Paper    Online Appendix​    Codes     
Terms of trade uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions.

(1) Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Andrés Blanco)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (Vol. 11, No. 1, Jan 2019)
Paper     Online Appendix      
Firm idiosyncratic uncertainty is a key determinant of micro pricing behavior and aggregate price flexibility.

Working Papers
​
The Macroeconomics of Partial Irreversibility (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Paper   Appendix
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of partially irreversible investment arising from a wedge between the buying and selling price of capital and apply the theory to study corporate tax reforms. Corporate income tax cuts improve the allocation of capital, decrease aggregate Tobin's q, and slow down capital fluctuations. 
*Previously circulated as The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms

Returns to Labor Mobility: Layoff Costs and Quit Turbulence (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent)  R&R at Economic Journal 
CEPR Working Paper
When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, generous unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment.
*Previously circulated as Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models

Self-Insurance and Welfare in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani, and Alireza Sepahsalari)
​Paper
We investigate the welfare consequences of skill loss coinciding with involuntary layoffs on labour market outcomes in the presence of imperfect financial markets and search frictions
​
​
Work in Progress

Monetary Policy and Corporate Tax Reforms (w/ Andrés Blanco and Erin Markiewitz)
Paper 
Monetary policy rate increases following "long-run motivated" corporate income tax cuts. 

​Lumpy Forecasts (with Javier Turén) 


Sleeping (for now)
​

Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets (with Felix Matthys)
Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors. ​

Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano)
Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices.
Preliminary Draft


Older Publications

Baley, De la Peza and Martínez (2009) La Importancia del Sistema de Pensiones en el Desarrollo de los Mercados Financieros en Proceso de Innovación Financiera en la Economía Global, Banco de México

Baley (2009) El Registro de Garantías Mobiliarias y su Impacto en el Mercado de Crédito Garantizado, Tesis de Licenciatura, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Texto Slides

CO-AUTHORS 


Andrés Blanco
University of Michigan


Ana Figueiredo 
Erasmus Rotterdam

Federico Kochen
NYU


Lars Ljungqvist
Stockholm School of Economics & NYU
​
​
​Cristiano Mantovani
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

​Felix Matthys
 ITAM & Princeton

​Daniel Sámano
Banco de México


​Thomas Sargent
NYU, NYU Stern & Hoover Institution​



Alireza Sepahsalari
University of Bristol 

​Robert Ulbricht
Boston College

​Laura Veldkamp
Columbia Business School


Michael Waugh
NYU Stern School of Business

Powered by Create your own unique website with customizable templates.
  • Home
  • Research
  • Teaching
  • Events
  • Personal
  • Contact