Isaac Baley
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Research

Macro Fluctuations and Micro Frictions
Google Scholar Profile
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Publications

(3) Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Econometrica (Forthcoming) 
Paper        Online Appendix 
Structural links between aggregate transitional dynamics, steady state cross-sectional moments, and micro data in lumpy economies, with an application to investment. 

(2) Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? (w/ Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh)
Journal of International Economics (Vol. 126, Sep 2020)
Paper    Online Appendix​    Codes     
Terms of trade uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions.

(1) Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Andrés Blanco)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (Vol. 11, No. 1, Jan 2019)
Paper     Online Appendix      
Firm idiosyncratic uncertainty is a key determinant of micro pricing behavior and aggregate price flexibility.


Working Papers
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Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht)    R&R at Journal of Political Economy
During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching.
Paper

Quit Turbulence and Unemployment (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent)    2nd round R&R at Economic Journal 
Paper
When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, generous unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment.
*Previously circulated as Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models
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Work in Progress

The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Corporate tax reforms that reduce after-tax investment frictions decrease capital misallocation, increase aggregate Tobin's q, and accelerate the propagation of productivity shocks. 
Slides     Draft (Coming soon!)


Self-Insurance in Turbulent Labor Markets (with  Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani, and Alireza Sepahsalari)
The risk of human capital obsolescence decreases reemployment wages and increases savings and unemployment duration.

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Sleeping papers (for now)
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Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets (with Felix Matthys)
Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors. ​

Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano)
Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices.
Preliminary Draft


Old Publications

Baley, De la Peza and Martínez (2009) La Importancia del Sistema de Pensiones en el Desarrollo de los Mercados Financieros en Proceso de Innovación Financiera en la Economía Global, Banco de México

Baley (2009) El Registro de Garantías Mobiliarias y su Impacto en el Mercado de Crédito Garantizado, Tesis de Licenciatura, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Texto Slides

CO-AUTHORS 


Andrés Blanco
University of Michigan


Ana Figueiredo 
Erasmus Rotterdam

Federico Kochen
NYU


Lars Ljungqvist
Stockholm School of Economics & NYU
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​Cristiano Mantovani
Universitat Pompeu Fabra

​Felix Matthys
 ITAM & Princeton

​Daniel Sámano
Banco de México


​Thomas Sargent
NYU, NYU Stern & Hoover Institution​



Alireza Sepahsalari

University of Bristol 

​Robert Ulbricht

Boston College

​Laura Veldkamp
Columbia Business School


Michael Waugh
NYU Stern School of Business

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