Google Scholar Profile
Publications
(4) Bayesian Learning (w/ Laura Velkamp)
Handbook of Economic Expectations (Forthcoming, 2022)
Paper
Learning is the process by which agents form beliefs. We survey the literature on Bayesian learning and consider the types of consequences these beliefs have on economic outcomes.
(3) Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Econometrica (Vol. 89, No. 3, May 2021)
Paper Appendix Online Appendix
When agents make lumpy choices (investment, price-setting…), we show that two steady-state statistics, easily computed with microdata, predict how the economy responds to macro shocks and inform the size of adjustment frictions.
(2) Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? (w/ Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh)
Journal of International Economics (Vol. 126, Sep 2020)
Paper Online Appendix Codes
Terms of trade uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions.
(1) Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Andrés Blanco)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (Vol. 11, No. 1, Jan 2019)
Paper Online Appendix
Firm idiosyncratic uncertainty is a key determinant of micro pricing behavior and aggregate price flexibility.
Working Papers
Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht) 2nd R&R at Journal of Political Economy
During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching.
CEPR Working Paper
Returns to Labor Mobility: Layoff Costs and Quit Turbulence (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) 3rd R&R at Economic Journal
CEPR Working Paper
When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, generous unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment.
*Previously circulated as Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models
The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Paper Appendix
Corporate tax reforms that reduce after-tax investment frictions improve the allocation of capital across firms, decrease aggregate Tobin's q, and accelerate capital fluctuations around steady state.
Work in Progress
Self-Insurance in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani, and Alireza Sepahsalari)
The risk of human capital obsolescence decreases reemployment wages and increases savings and unemployment duration.
Sleeping (for now)
Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets (with Felix Matthys)
Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors.
Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano)
Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices.
Preliminary Draft
Older Publications
Baley, De la Peza and Martínez (2009) La Importancia del Sistema de Pensiones en el Desarrollo de los Mercados Financieros en Proceso de Innovación Financiera en la Economía Global, Banco de México
Baley (2009) El Registro de Garantías Mobiliarias y su Impacto en el Mercado de Crédito Garantizado, Tesis de Licenciatura, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Texto Slides
Publications
(4) Bayesian Learning (w/ Laura Velkamp)
Handbook of Economic Expectations (Forthcoming, 2022)
Paper
Learning is the process by which agents form beliefs. We survey the literature on Bayesian learning and consider the types of consequences these beliefs have on economic outcomes.
(3) Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Econometrica (Vol. 89, No. 3, May 2021)
Paper Appendix Online Appendix
When agents make lumpy choices (investment, price-setting…), we show that two steady-state statistics, easily computed with microdata, predict how the economy responds to macro shocks and inform the size of adjustment frictions.
(2) Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? (w/ Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh)
Journal of International Economics (Vol. 126, Sep 2020)
Paper Online Appendix Codes
Terms of trade uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions.
(1) Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Andrés Blanco)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (Vol. 11, No. 1, Jan 2019)
Paper Online Appendix
Firm idiosyncratic uncertainty is a key determinant of micro pricing behavior and aggregate price flexibility.
Working Papers
Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht) 2nd R&R at Journal of Political Economy
During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching.
CEPR Working Paper
Returns to Labor Mobility: Layoff Costs and Quit Turbulence (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) 3rd R&R at Economic Journal
CEPR Working Paper
When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, generous unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment.
*Previously circulated as Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models
The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Paper Appendix
Corporate tax reforms that reduce after-tax investment frictions improve the allocation of capital across firms, decrease aggregate Tobin's q, and accelerate capital fluctuations around steady state.
Work in Progress
Self-Insurance in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani, and Alireza Sepahsalari)
The risk of human capital obsolescence decreases reemployment wages and increases savings and unemployment duration.
Sleeping (for now)
Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets (with Felix Matthys)
Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors.
Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano)
Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices.
Preliminary Draft
Older Publications
Baley, De la Peza and Martínez (2009) La Importancia del Sistema de Pensiones en el Desarrollo de los Mercados Financieros en Proceso de Innovación Financiera en la Economía Global, Banco de México
Baley (2009) El Registro de Garantías Mobiliarias y su Impacto en el Mercado de Crédito Garantizado, Tesis de Licenciatura, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Texto Slides
CO-AUTHORS
|
Andrés Blanco University of Michigan Ana Figueiredo Erasmus Rotterdam Federico Kochen NYU Lars Ljungqvist Stockholm School of Economics & NYU |
Cristiano Mantovani Universitat Pompeu Fabra Felix Matthys ITAM & Princeton Daniel Sámano Banco de México Thomas Sargent NYU, NYU Stern & Hoover Institution |
Alireza Sepahsalari University of Bristol Robert Ulbricht Boston College Laura Veldkamp Columbia Business School Michael Waugh NYU Stern School of Business |
