Google Scholar Research Statement
Publications
(6) Returns to Labor Mobility (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent)
The Economic Journal (conditionally accepted)
Paper Appendix
Returns to labor mobility are shaped by calibrations of productivity processes that use theoretical perspectives and data sources from (i) labor economics and (ii) industrial organization. By studying how equilibrium unemployment responds to (a) layoff costs, and (b) likelihoods of skill losses following quits, we tighten calibrations of macro-labor models.
(5) Bayesian Learning (w/ Laura Veldkamp)
Handbook of Economic Expectations, Chapter 23 (November, 2022)
Working Paper Science Direct
Learning is the process by which agents form beliefs. We survey the literature on Bayesian learning and consider the types of consequences these beliefs have on economic outcomes.
(4) Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht)
Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 130, No. 11, November 2022)
Paper Appendix
During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching.
(3) Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Econometrica (Vol. 89, No. 3, May 2021)
Paper Appendix Online Appendix
When agents make lumpy choices (investment, price-setting…), we show that two steady-state statistics, easily computed with microdata, predict how the economy responds to macro shocks and inform the size of adjustment frictions.
(2) Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? (w/ Laura Veldkamp & Michael Waugh)
Journal of International Economics (Vol. 126, Sep 2020)
Paper Appendix Codes
Terms of trade uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions.
(1) Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Andrés Blanco)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (Vol. 11, No. 1, Jan 2019)
Paper Appendix
Firm idiosyncratic uncertainty is a key determinant of micro pricing behavior and aggregate price flexibility.
Working Papers
The Macroeconomics of Partial Irreversibility (w/ Andrés Blanco) R&R at Review of Economic Studies
Paper Appendix
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of partially irreversible investment arising from a wedge between the buying and selling price of capital and apply the theory to study corporate tax reforms. Corporate income tax cuts improve the allocation of capital, decrease aggregate Tobin's q, and slow down capital fluctuations.
*Previously circulated as The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms
Calibration and Cross-phenomenon Restrictions (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) Submitted
Paper Appendix
We demonstrate how cross-phenomenon restrictions involving returns to labor mobility can guide calibrations of productivity processes to quantify adverse macroeconomic consequences coming from interactions between microeconomic turbulence and the different sizes of unemployment benefits offered by various welfare states.
*In preparation for the RED special issue in honor of Thomas Cooley.
Work in Progress
Self-Insurance and Welfare in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani, and Alireza Sepahsalari)
Paper
We investigate the welfare consequences of skill loss on labor market outcomes when workers self-insure in the presence of imperfect financial markets and search frictions.
Lumpy Forecasts (with Javier Turén)
Draft coming soon!
We document that professional forecasters adjust their inflation forecast in a lumpy way—periods of inaction followed by large adjustments. Using a fixed-event forecasting framework, we assess the learning speed and the effect of the consensus forecast and individual beliefs on forecast revisions’ extensive and intensive margins of forecast revisions.
Monetary Policy and Corporate Tax Reforms (w/ Andrés Blanco and Erin Markiewitz)
Paper
Monetary policy rate increases following "long-run motivated" corporate income tax cuts.
The Data Economy: Tools and Applications (w/ Laura Veldkamp)
Dormant projects
Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets (with Felix Matthys)
Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors.
Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano)
Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices.
Preliminary Draft
Other Publications (In Spanish)
Baley (2022) La Heterogeneidad Empresarial y las Dinámicas Macroeconómicas, en Blog Nada es Gratis.
Baley, De la Peza and Martínez (2009) La Importancia del Sistema de Pensiones en el Desarrollo de los Mercados Financieros en Proceso de Innovación Financiera en la Economía Global, Banco de México
Baley (2009) El Registro de Garantías Mobiliarias y su Impacto en el Mercado de Crédito Garantizado, Tesis de Licenciatura, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Texto Slides
Publications
(6) Returns to Labor Mobility (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent)
The Economic Journal (conditionally accepted)
Paper Appendix
Returns to labor mobility are shaped by calibrations of productivity processes that use theoretical perspectives and data sources from (i) labor economics and (ii) industrial organization. By studying how equilibrium unemployment responds to (a) layoff costs, and (b) likelihoods of skill losses following quits, we tighten calibrations of macro-labor models.
(5) Bayesian Learning (w/ Laura Veldkamp)
Handbook of Economic Expectations, Chapter 23 (November, 2022)
Working Paper Science Direct
Learning is the process by which agents form beliefs. We survey the literature on Bayesian learning and consider the types of consequences these beliefs have on economic outcomes.
(4) Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht)
Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 130, No. 11, November 2022)
Paper Appendix
During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching.
(3) Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (w/ Andrés Blanco)
Econometrica (Vol. 89, No. 3, May 2021)
Paper Appendix Online Appendix
When agents make lumpy choices (investment, price-setting…), we show that two steady-state statistics, easily computed with microdata, predict how the economy responds to macro shocks and inform the size of adjustment frictions.
(2) Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? (w/ Laura Veldkamp & Michael Waugh)
Journal of International Economics (Vol. 126, Sep 2020)
Paper Appendix Codes
Terms of trade uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions.
(1) Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Andrés Blanco)
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (Vol. 11, No. 1, Jan 2019)
Paper Appendix
Firm idiosyncratic uncertainty is a key determinant of micro pricing behavior and aggregate price flexibility.
Working Papers
The Macroeconomics of Partial Irreversibility (w/ Andrés Blanco) R&R at Review of Economic Studies
Paper Appendix
We investigate the macroeconomic effects of partially irreversible investment arising from a wedge between the buying and selling price of capital and apply the theory to study corporate tax reforms. Corporate income tax cuts improve the allocation of capital, decrease aggregate Tobin's q, and slow down capital fluctuations.
*Previously circulated as The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms
Calibration and Cross-phenomenon Restrictions (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) Submitted
Paper Appendix
We demonstrate how cross-phenomenon restrictions involving returns to labor mobility can guide calibrations of productivity processes to quantify adverse macroeconomic consequences coming from interactions between microeconomic turbulence and the different sizes of unemployment benefits offered by various welfare states.
*In preparation for the RED special issue in honor of Thomas Cooley.
Work in Progress
Self-Insurance and Welfare in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani, and Alireza Sepahsalari)
Paper
We investigate the welfare consequences of skill loss on labor market outcomes when workers self-insure in the presence of imperfect financial markets and search frictions.
Lumpy Forecasts (with Javier Turén)
Draft coming soon!
We document that professional forecasters adjust their inflation forecast in a lumpy way—periods of inaction followed by large adjustments. Using a fixed-event forecasting framework, we assess the learning speed and the effect of the consensus forecast and individual beliefs on forecast revisions’ extensive and intensive margins of forecast revisions.
Monetary Policy and Corporate Tax Reforms (w/ Andrés Blanco and Erin Markiewitz)
Paper
Monetary policy rate increases following "long-run motivated" corporate income tax cuts.
The Data Economy: Tools and Applications (w/ Laura Veldkamp)
Dormant projects
Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets (with Felix Matthys)
Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors.
Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano)
Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices.
Preliminary Draft
Other Publications (In Spanish)
Baley (2022) La Heterogeneidad Empresarial y las Dinámicas Macroeconómicas, en Blog Nada es Gratis.
Baley, De la Peza and Martínez (2009) La Importancia del Sistema de Pensiones en el Desarrollo de los Mercados Financieros en Proceso de Innovación Financiera en la Economía Global, Banco de México
Baley (2009) El Registro de Garantías Mobiliarias y su Impacto en el Mercado de Crédito Garantizado, Tesis de Licenciatura, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Texto Slides
CO-AUTHORS
|
Andrés Blanco University of Michigan Ana Figueiredo Erasmus Rotterdam Federico Kochen Columbia, CEMFI Lars Ljungqvist Stockholm School of Economics & NYU Cristiano Mantovani Universitat Pompeu Fabra & BSE |
Erin Markiewitz University of Michigan Felix Matthys ITAM & Princeton Daniel Sámano Banco de México Thomas Sargent NYU, NYU Stern & Hoover Institution Nicolás Oviedo Universitat Pompeu Fabra & BSE |
Alireza Sepahsalari University of Bristol Javier Turén Universidad Católica de Chile Robert Ulbricht Boston College Laura Veldkamp Columbia Business School Mike Waugh Minneapolis FED |
