(4) Bayesian Learning (w/ Laura Velkamp) Handbook of Economic Expectations (Forthcoming, 2022) Paper Learning is the process by which agents form beliefs. We survey the literature on Bayesian learning and consider the types of consequences these beliefs have on economic outcomes.
Working Papers Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo&Robert Ulbricht) 2nd R&R at Journal of Political Economy During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. An equilibrium model of the labor market with directed search, multidimensional sorting, learning about skills, and aggregate shocks accounts for the cyclical dynamics of skill mismatch and occupational switching. CEPR Working Paper
Returns to Labor Mobility: Layoff Costs and Quit Turbulence (w/ Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) 3rd R&R at Economic Journal CEPR Working Paper When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, generous unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment. *Previously circulated as Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models
The Long-Run Effects of Corporate Tax Reforms (w/ Andrés Blanco) PaperAppendix Corporate tax reforms that reduce after-tax investment frictions improve the allocation of capital across firms, decrease aggregate Tobin's q, and accelerate capital fluctuations around steady state.
Work in Progress
Self-Insurance in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Ana Figueiredo, Cristiano Mantovani, and Alireza Sepahsalari) The risk of human capital obsolescence decreases reemployment wages and increases savings and unemployment duration. Sleeping (for now) Policy Uncertainty and Sovereign Bond Markets (with Felix Matthys) Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors.
Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano) Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices. Preliminary Draft