Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Andrés Blanco) AEJ:Macro (Forthcoming, Jan 2019) PaperWeb AppendixSlides Firm uncertainty cycles are a key determinant of micro-price statistics and aggregate price flexibility.
Working Papers Quit Turbulence and Unemployment: From the perspective of a particle physicist (with Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) Paper When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, generous unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment. *Previously circulated as Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models
Might Global Uncertainty Encourage International Trade? (with Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh) Paper If agents are risk averse and prudent, then asymmetric information between countries increases trade. *Previously circulated as Information Globalization, Risk Sharing, and International Trade.
Work in Progress
Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (with Andrés Blanco) We characterize analytically a tight link between micro data, steady state moments, and business cycle dynamics in economies with heterogeneity and micro-level inaction, providing an application to investment dynamics. Draft Slides Web Appendix
Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht) During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. A learning model with countercyclical uncertainty, due to occupational switching, accounts for these facts. Draft coming soon! SlidesPoster
Flying from Global Uncertainty (with Felix Matthys) Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors. Draft coming soon!
Wealth and Inequality in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Alireza Sepahsalari) We study the interaction between turbulence-- the risk of human capital depreciation upon layoffs--and asset accumulation. Draft coming soon!
Sleeping papers (for now) Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano) Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices. Preliminary Draft