Working Papers Might Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? (with Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh) NBER Working Paper If domestic and foreign goods are highly substitutable, terms of trade uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. *Previously circulated as Information Globalization, Risk Sharing, and International Trade.
Quit Turbulence and Unemployment: From the Perspective of a Particle Physicist (with Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) Paper When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, generous unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment. *Previously circulated as Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models
Aggregate Dynamics in Lumpy Economies (with Andrés Blanco) New tools that link business cycle dynamics, steady state moments, and micro data for lumpy economies with heterogeneity, providing an application to investment dynamics. PaperOnline AppendixData AppendixSlides
Work in Progress
Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht) During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. A learning model with countercyclical uncertainty, due to occupational switching, accounts for these facts. Draft coming soon!
Wealth and Inequality in Turbulent Labor Markets (with Alireza Sepahsalari) The risk of human capital obsolescence decreases reemployment wages and increases unemployment duration. Draft coming soon!
Flying from Global Uncertainty (with Felix Matthys) Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country-specific policy uncertainty factors. Draft coming soon!
Optimal Monetary Instruments for an Uncertain World (with Donghai Zhang and Renbin Zhang)
Sleeping papers (for now) Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano) Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices. Preliminary Draft