Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Julio A. Blanco) AEJ:Macro (Forthcoming) PaperOnline AppendixSlides Firm uncertainty cycles are a key determinant of micro-price statistics and aggregate price flexibility.
Working Papers Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models (with Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) Submitted CEPR Discussion Paper Slides When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, large unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment.
Trump's Paradox: Might Uncertainty Encourage International Trade? (with Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh) Paper Slides If agents are risk averse and prudent, then asymmetric information between countries increases trade. *Previously circulated as Information Globalization, Risk Sharing, and International Trade.
Work in Progress
Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht) During recessions, highly mismatched jobs are destroyed but also created. A learning model with countercyclical uncertainty, due to occupational switching, accounts for the facts. Draft SlidesPoster
Transitional Dynamics in Inaction Economies (with Julio A. Blanco) We characterize analytically a tight link between data, steady state, and business cycle moments in economies with micro-level inaction and idiosyncratic shocks. New Draft Slides Online Appendix
Flying from Global Uncertainty (with Felix Matthys) Government bond yields are affected differentially by global and country specific economic uncertainty factors. Draft coming soon!
Turbulence, Precaution and Unemployment (with Alireza Sepahsalari) We study the interaction between the risk of human capital depreciation and asset accumulation. Draft coming soon!
Sleeping papers (for now) Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano) Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices. Preliminary Draft