Firm Uncertainty Cycles and the Propagation of Nominal Shocks (with Julio A. Blanco) AEJ:Macro (Forthcoming) PaperOnline AppendixSlides Firm uncertainty cycles are a key determinant of micro-price statistics and aggregate price flexibility.
Working Papers Turbulence and Unemployment in Matching Models (with Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas Sargent) Submitted CEPR Discussion Paper Slides When workers are exposed to the risk of skill obsolescence after a layoff or a voluntary quit, large unemployment benefits create more and longer unemployment.
Trump's Paradox: Might Uncertainty Encourage International Trade? (with Laura Velkamp & Michael Waugh) Paper Slides If agents are risk averse and prudent, then asymmetric information between countries increases trade. *Previously circulated as Information Globalization, Risk Sharing, and International Trade.
Work in Progress
Mismatch Cycles (with Ana Figueiredo & Robert Ulbricht) Worker-occupation mismatch is procyclical for job stayers but countercyclical for new hires from unemployment, and it amplifies wage cyclicality. Paper
Aggregate Dynamics in Inaction Models (with Julio A. Blanco) We characterize analytically transitional dynamics that follow an aggregate shock as a function of steady state moments and observable actions Draft coming soon!
Flying from Global Uncertainty (with Felix Matthys) Bond yields are affected by global and country level economic uncertainty factors. Draft coming soon!
Price Duration and Passthrough (with Federico Kochen and Daniel Sámano) Exchange rate passthrough is larger for products with young (recently set) prices. Preliminary Draft